When was the last time you made an investment decision based on some forecasts by some ‘expert in the dark suit and Ferragamo tie’ on CNBC or any of the other financial media? Purely for your entertainment, I have compiled some of the forecasts made by these experts around Dec’12/Jan’13 about where Gold prices will be by the end of the year 2013:
UBS : $1900 / oz
Citi: $1750 / oz
BofA ML : $5000 / oz by 2014….MacNeil Curry of B of A ML upped the $3000/oz forecasts made by his colleagues, Mary Ann Bartels and Stephen Suttmeier.
Morgan Stanley : $1852 / oz…imagine the additional bonus this guy would have taken home for being able to be so precise ;-).
Here are some of the broad market forecasts. Examples like these are aplenty. The real issue is not about being off the mark (way way off). The bigger issue is that circus of market forecasting goes on unabated without any accountability from those talking heads, on CNBC and the like. The biggest joke is, there will surely be years when some of these forecasts will randomly be close to where the market actually ends. That is when you got to see their ‘swagger’. A completely statistically random target hit will be the headline of those “I told you so” keynote presentations. However, the million-mile misses like the ones in the picture, will never be alluded to. They will probably even find ways to dis-associate themselves from these misses.
What we are about
We at moneywisesmart.com will help you to see through such ridiculous market forecasts or rather disregard all such ‘noise’ completely. In fact we are not about making forecasts or providing hot-tips on ‘stocks that might appreciate 100 fold’. Neither are we going to provide any secret investment ideas. I am sure you would have your sources of investment advice based on what is suitable for your situation. What we promise to do is help you to look at managing money and investments in a certain way where you will yourself be able to decide what to believe and what to value. Our first job is to convince you that you are the only person who has your best interest in mind, so you need to take control. We will encourage you to think about money in a certain way that is commonsensical, simple to appreciate, mathematically valid (NO complex mathematical models I promise), have stood the test of time (centuries) and is CNBC-proof :-). Our coverage can be broadly classified under:
Money management – Help you to make better top line decisions keeping your and your family’s long-term financial well-being in mind. This would cover how to make better money-related decisions rather than specifically what to invest or trade. We will of course provide lots of specific examples using our own trades, but the purpose of that will be purely educational. For those really interested to know, we will have a separate section (probably outside public view so that we do not bore everybody) where we will go into further depths about our trading strategies and trading philosophies, however our blog is going to be much more than that.
Cost Management – This is a huge area and works hand in hand with money-management. Will help you to understand how managing your costs (all kinds) is far more important that what you probably thought. We will be discussing many smart ways to managing costs without compromising any value that you are getting by incurring those costs.
Risk Management – This is one of my favourites and I will be a life-long student of how to manage risks better. We will help you to look at risks is different ways and also manage them, so that you can enhance the probability of achieving your long-term goals. It will help you to navigate through the ‘Black Swans’. Our strong belief is that you can never avoid risks. However what you can do is be aware of them and be more prepared to manage them when they actually manifest.
It’s less than a week since we launched, and we are extremely thankful to you all for your interest and support. It has surely beaten our own expectations and makes us even more motivated to keep blogging. We are really enjoying ourselves and hope you are enjoying our blog too. Our eyes and ears are always open to receiving your feedback.